How is New York City doing? AI has opinions
I asked Perplexity, ChatGPT and other bots for their analyses.
Here was my deep research query: “How is New York City doing right now? Look at all relevant indicators and give me an honest analysis.” Unedited answers are pasted below. I’m not suggesting that these are the right answers — just that they’re a few not-stupid ways of synthesizing current trends.
Perplexity
New York City Status Report: July 2025
New York City is experiencing a mixed but generally positive trajectory in mid-2025, with significant improvements in several key areas while facing notable challenges in others. Here’s an honest analysis of where the city stands across major indicators:
Economic Performance: Solid Recovery
The city’s economic fundamentals are strong. Unemployment has dropped to 4.8% as of May 2025, down from 5.6% in December 2024. This represents a steady improvement over six consecutive months and remains well below the long-term average of 7.66%. The city has added 57,100 private sector jobs over the past 12 months, with job growth at 1.4% outpacing both New York State (1.1%) and the U.S. (1.1%).
Construction activity remains robust at $68.2 billion in 2023, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 10%. The MTA’s 2025-2029 capital plan represents the largest transportation investment in history at $68.4 billion, signaling major infrastructure improvements ahead.
Public Safety: Historic Improvements
New York City is experiencing unprecedented safety improvements. The first half of 2025 saw record-low shooting victims (397) and shooting incidents (337), both the lowest in recorded history. Major crime declined 6% citywide, with reductions in six of seven major crime categories.
Murders dropped 23% and robberies fell 13% compared to the same period in 2024. Even transit crime decreased to near-record lows, with zero murders in the subway system during the first quarter for the first time in seven years. These improvements represent the most significant crime reductions in decades.
Population and Demographics: Stabilizing Growth
After pandemic-era losses, the city has achieved two consecutive years of population growth. The population reached 8.48 million in 2024, gaining 87,000 residents between July 2023 and July 2024. All five boroughs experienced growth, led by Manhattan at 1.7%.
This recovery is driven primarily by international migration reaching its highest levels in decades, while domestic migration shows signs of stabilization. The growth suggests the city has successfully rebounded from its pandemic population decline.
Transportation: Congestion Pricing Success
The implementation of congestion pricing in January 2025 has been a transformative success. Traffic in Manhattan’s central business district is down 11%, with 67,000 fewer vehicles entering daily. This has generated cascading benefits:
Subway ridership up 7% and bus ridership up 12%
Travel times reduced by up to 42% on river crossings
Air quality improvements with steady or decreasing PM2.5 levels across the city
$219 million in net revenue generated through May 2025, on track for the projected $500 million annually
Transit performance has reached near-record levels, with subway on-time performance at 85.2% in May—the best non-pandemic month in recorded history.
Housing Market: Affordability Pressures
The housing market presents significant affordability challenges. Median rents reached $3,397 in Q1 2025, up 5.6% year-over-year. Manhattan rents hit $4,730 in February, up 5% annually. Home prices also rose, with the citywide median reaching $881,252, up 3.4% from last year.
Smaller units are experiencing the steepest increases, with studio to two-bedroom rents rising 7.2% compared to just 1.2% for three-bedroom units. This trend particularly impacts young professionals and families seeking affordable housing options.
Tourism and Entertainment: Mixed Recovery
The tourism sector faces significant headwinds. The city revised its 2025 visitor forecast down to 64.1 million from an initial projection of 67.6 million, primarily due to an 800,000 decline in international visitors. This represents a potential $4 billion loss in tourism spending.
However, Broadway is thriving. The 2024-2025 season achieved record-breaking success with $1.89 billion in gross revenue and 14.7 million admissions—the second-highest attendance on record. International theatergoers purchased 2.62 million tickets, the second-highest total in three decades.
Infrastructure and Fiscal Health: Strong Investment
The city’s fiscal position has improved significantly. The FY 2025 budget projects a $2.34 billion surplus, driven by stronger-than-expected revenues and reduced asylum seeker costs. This has enabled the city to balance its $116.9 billion FY 2026 budget without major service cuts.
Major infrastructure investments are proceeding, including the MTA’s $68.4 billion capital plan and $10.37 billion in Department of Transportation projects through 2028. The city has identified over $14.1 billion in state of good repair costs through 2027.
Environmental Progress: Meaningful Gains
Environmental initiatives are showing measurable progress. The city planted 42,000 trees in 2024, a 38% increase from 2019 levels. Air quality has improved since congestion pricing implementation, with PM2.5 levels steady or decreasing across monitoring sites.
The citywide organics collection program launched in 2025, and waste containerization efforts are expanding, though implementation has faced some community resistance. The city is on track to meet several PlaNYC sustainability goals.
Quality of Life: Persistent Concerns
Despite objective improvements, resident satisfaction remains below pre-pandemic levels. Only 34% of New Yorkers rate citywide quality of life as excellent or good, compared to 51% in 2017. Public safety perceptions lag behind actual crime reductions, with only 42% rating neighborhood safety positively.
Subway safety concerns persist despite reduced crime, with alarmingly low safety ratings from riders. This perception gap represents a significant challenge for city leadership.
Honest Assessment
New York City in July 2025 is performing better than most major cities on objective measures like crime, employment, and infrastructure investment. The successful implementation of congestion pricing, record-low crime rates, and strong fiscal position represent genuine achievements.
However, the city faces real challenges in housing affordability, tourism recovery, and resident satisfaction. The gap between improving conditions and public perception suggests communication and service delivery issues that require attention.
Overall verdict: New York City is in a fundamentally sound position with improving trends in most key areas, but leadership must address affordability pressures and work to align public perception with measurable improvements. The city’s resilience and adaptive capacity remain strong, positioning it well for continued recovery and growth.
ChatGPT
“New York City in 2025 presents a mixed picture of robust recovery and persistent challenges. The city’s economy has largely bounced back from the pandemic downturn, with record-high employment and a rebound in tourism, but high costs (from rents to consumer prices) strain affordability. Public safety data show encouraging declines in violent crime to record lows for recent years, yet overall crime remains elevated compared to pre-2020 norms. Quality of life indicators are similarly double-edged: sanitation improvements and initiatives in schools and healthcare are underway, even as housing affordability and homelessness continue to test the city’s social support systems. At the same time, transformational changes in transportation — including the nation’s first congestion pricing program — are improving transit reliability and reducing traffic. Finally, environmental metrics reflect both progress and urgency: air quality and sustainability efforts are improving local conditions, but climate risks like heat waves and flooding demand ongoing resilience investments. The analysis below provides a detailed, balanced look at New York City’s status across key domains, supported by current data from government and authoritative sources.”
The bot’s full answer is here.
Gemini
“New York City is currently navigating a complex landscape of robust economic recovery, significant improvements in public safety, and proactive urban environmental management, while simultaneously grappling with deepening income inequality, a severe housing affordability crisis, and a persistent gap between statistical improvements and public perception of quality of life. The city's fiscal health, though buoyed by strong tax revenues in the short term, faces underlying structural imbalances that could pose challenges to long-term stability. This report provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of New York City's performance across key indicators in 2024-2025, offering an objective analysis of its strengths, vulnerabilities, and future trajectory.”
The bot’s full answer is here.
Claude
“New York City has achieved remarkable economic recovery in 2025, with record-high employment of 4.86 million jobs and the strongest labor force participation in decades, yet faces a stark paradox: while key metrics show urban vitality returning, only 30% of residents rate quality of life as good, down from 50% in 2017. This comprehensive analysis reveals a city successfully navigating post-pandemic recovery while grappling with fundamental challenges around housing affordability, infrastructure aging, and resident satisfaction that demand urgent attention. NYC's economy demonstrates unprecedented strength with 4.86 million total jobs as of April 2025—the highest in city history—and unemployment falling to 4.8%. Tourism has rebounded to nearly 65 million visitors in 2024, with projections to exceed the 2019 record. However, this economic vitality contrasts sharply with persistent housing affordability crises, infrastructure backlogs exceeding $62 billion, and declining public confidence in city services and safety.”
The bot’s full answer is here.